Tuesday, May 13, 2014

That War You Were Expecting? Putin's Already Won It

People keep waiting for the “war” to begin in Ukraine. But a 21st century-style war has already begun here, and may be almost over – something that Vladimir Putin seems to understand even if the rest of us do not.

In a world where Youtube, Twitter and Facebook dominate, the overt “hard power” of guns and bullets is no longer as publicly palatable as it once was. Autocratic states prefer to bankrupt dissidents instead of executing them; NGO workers are not “disappeared” but their offices are shut down for zoning irregularities. Nowadays even dictators have to be “post-modern.”

Putin, schooled in the art of covert power, understands this new world, both instinctively and politically. To adequately comprehend what the Russian president is doing in Ukraine you have to travel across the occupied east, which is both a journey into a country falling apart and a gradual immersion in the realities of Russian geopolitical strategy.

Across eastern Ukraine, city centers are now deserted; checkpoints and barriers control the central thoroughfares while shops and bars are closed. In the industrial town of Sloviansk, the center of the crisis, ATMs are running out of cash and the people wait in line for bread. Gun-toting men mix with bored youths and old women while armored personnel carriers perform tricks in the road — skidding around in circles — for cheering crowds and a man can go from anonymity to self-appointed mayor in the space of a few hours.

For the rest of the story: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/05/that-war-you-were-expecting-putins-already-won-it-106546.html#.U24vj61dXSE

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